Reaction to Paul Sabin’s Book, The Bet

Overall, I feel ambivalent towards Paul Sabin’s The Bet. Simon and Ehrlich’s wager or “the bet” itself was interesting. I feel that both men were partially correct and were right to express their thoughts and concerns about the fate of the human race. Ehrlich was right about us using up our finite resources but he was wrong about the time it would take to get to the end of our supply (let that be considered food, fuel, etc.). However, what he failed to take into account was human intelligence and humans’ capability. Ehrlich was wrong not to believe in human advancement. Simon was right about us finding out new ways to conserve/produce more resources. However, we can only do so much with what we have left. Everyone has been talking about moving away from fossil fuels for years now, and soon we may have to stop talking about it and actually do it.  

I find it very interesting that even though Ehrlich and his friends were wrong and lost the bet, they still have an impact and are relevant well-known figures in the world today. Even though Ehrlich was a sore loser was extremely big-headed and automatically called men “idiots” or “morons” just because they didn’t agree with him. He even said “if Simon disappeared from the face of the Earth, that would be great for humanity.” –then Simon dies three years later (Sabin 203). I am surprised that Ehrlich is still involved in public debates today. Ehrlich’s colleague during the time of the wager who believed in Ehrlich, John Holdren, was appointed the director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy by President Obama.

I believe that Paul Sabin had a balanced perspective. Sabin not taking sides allows the readers to make their own decisions. I appreciate the Sabin’s neutrality, but it is apparent how unethical some of Ehrlich’s ideas were. He does not suggest the immorality of their more extreme ideas such as Ehrlich’s forced fertilization and refusal of giving food to poor countries that did not abide by his ideals. I liked reading the background stories on the two men. Their history shows who they are and how they became THE Julian Simon and THE Paul Ehrlich. The message that I got from the book was to always keep an open mind. Also, not just environmentalists have an impact on political/environmental issues; Simon was an economist and had a huge role during the 80s and 90s.

After reading Bart Elmore’s book review of Sabin’s The Bet, I thought that Elmore did a great job summarizing the text. I agreed with a few of Elmore’s critiques such as Sabin’s lack of Middle-class citizen’s perspectives during Simon and Ehrlich’s wager. According to Elmore, “Sabin’s work does a great job of showing how elites created a poisonous culture of bickering that polarized policy makers in post-1970 America, but The Bet falls short when trying to explain how toxins of academic acrimony trickled down to Middle America.” I understand Elmore’s perspective and how he appreciated the detailed historic context in Sabin’s work. 

Sabin, Paul.  2014.  The Bet: Paul Ehrlich, Julian Simon, and Our Gamble over Earth’s Future.  New Haven: Yale UP.